Tropical Cyclone Lola: Vanuatu on high alert as storm makes landfall on northern island

Severe tropical cyclone Lola is passing over Pentecost Island and is forecast to make landfall on Malekula Island, Fiji Meteorological Service says.

Lola is now a category four cyclone with average wind speeds close to the centre of 185km/h with gusts reaching 260km/h.

It dropped from category 5, the highest cyclone category, Tuesday night before making landfall.

Meteorologist Samisoni Waqavakatoga said the cyclone may drop slightly more in strength but would most likely remain as a category 4 cyclone.

The cyclone was moving southwest slowly at 15km/h, Waqavakatoga said.

“For a category 3, 4, 5, slow moving, it will bring more destruction compared to category one or two.”

Models showed parts of Vanuatu could get up to 300mm of rain over 24 hours from the cyclone, Waqavakatoga said.

Waves close to the island are also expected to reach up to 5 metres.

The intensity of the cyclone is forecast to drop as it passes over Malekula Island, he said.

NIWA principal scientist, Chris Brandolino told Morning Report tropical cyclones tend to accelerate once they move out of the tropics.

While it has peaked in intensity, significant impacts could still be expected, even beyond the centre, he said.

“It will continue to weaken … and that weakening trend will continue as it approaches New Caledonia say by Friday midday or sometime on Friday,” Brandolino said.

Vanuatu on high alert

Vanuatu’s National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has activated offices in six provinces as Tropical Cyclone Lola bears down on the northern island of Pentecost.

The Vanuatu Met Service downgraded Lola to a category 4 on Tuesday but said the massive storm will still pack a severe punch when it makes land.

NDMO operations manager Rocky Neveserveth said it activated the offices to be ready to carry out a rapid assessment after the cyclone.

The capital, Port Vila, is on red alert and all government offices, markets, and banks are closed until further notice.

RNZ’s Pacific Vanuatu correspondent said he had had reports from people on the island of Motalava in Torba province on Tuesday that winds damaged banana trees.

He said he was told the sea around the island was rough, and in some parts of the island waves were washing inland.

At 2am Wednesday local time, the cyclone was about 30km west of the Pentecost, the Vanuatu Meteorological and Geo-Hazards Department said in its latest warning.

Winds close to the centre were estimated at 165km/h gusting to 189km/h within 16 nautical miles from the centre of the system and expected to affect the islands of Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa in the next 24 hours, the meteorological office warning said.

Very destructive hurricane force winds of 230km/h gusting to 320km/h were expected to affect Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa in the next 24 hours.

Destructive storm force winds of 185km/h gusting to 265km/h were within 90 nautical miles from the centre of the system and would affect Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa and Shefa later in the day.

Why is this tropical cyclone earlier than the usual season?

The season for tropical cyclones starts in November and goes to April in the Southern Hemisphere.

But NIWA’s Chris Brandolino said modelling of the climate conditions this time of the year showed an intense one could form

“There were indications that category five tropical cyclones could occur, because they occured in years with similar conditions that we see now in terms of the overall climate, the overall conditions with the ocean and the atmosphere.”

The average number of tropical cyclones during the season in the southwest Pacific region was nine, but the outlook was normal to above normal, with nine to 14 being possible, Brandolino said.

New Zealand impacts unclear

Brandolino said it was not clear what, if any, impacts the cyclone would have on New Zealand.

While Lola is weakening, cyclones can often experience a second life if they interact with a another weather system.

“So there is a separate weather system forecast to move from the south and west over the Tasman sea, and it will interact with this tropical moisture, produce a new low, somewhere over the northern Tasman Sea or northeastern Tasman Sea.

“There is a chance we could see rain and winds for parts of the country. The jury is still out in terms of what, if any, impact that will have on Aotearoa New Zealand but it’s certainly in the discussion.”