Rise in business confidence – ANZ

Business confidence has turned up for the first time in more than two years, but a fall in inflation expectations may not be enough to avert another Reserve Bank rate rise this year.

ANZ’s monthly survey showed a net 2 percent of respondents were confident in the broad economic outlook for the coming year, from a negative 4 percent reading in August.

That was the highest level since May 2021, while firms’ optimism about their own trading outlook held steady at net 11 percent.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner called the survey a “mixed bag”, with weaker exports, investment, construction, and employment intentions, but also a slight fall in inflation expectations below 5 percent.

“There’s still a long way to go, but things continue to move slowly in the right direction.”

“However, pricing intentions, one of the best inflation indicators in the survey, went the wrong way in the month, and both the exchange rate and oil prices have the potential to interrupt or halt downward progress.”

Zollner said the overall economic outlook was patchy, and the rebound in activity indicators seen since the start of the year looked to be running out of steam, but wage and price expectations remained high.

“Inflation pressures are gradually waning in the big picture, but not rapidly nor in a straight line, and the jury remains out on whether it’s occurring fast enough to bring core inflation pressures down in a timely fashion.”

She maintained ANZ’s view of more rate rises to come.

“We continue to expect that the RBNZ will conclude it has more work to do to be confident that inflation is on its way back to the target band, with a 25 basis point hike expected in November.”